Holiday season is when online marketplaces either cement loyalty or lose shoppers to faster, louder competitors. AdClarity’s latest outlook on U.S. online retail marketplaces shows that Q4 2025 digital ad spend is expected to reach roughly 2.15 to 2.25 billion dollars, about 10 percent higher than last year’s peak.
Holiday Spend Is Moving Faster and Earlier
Looking back at the last five quarters, marketplace spend follows a clear rhythm: Q4 spikes to around 2 billion dollars, softens in Q1 and Q2, then climbs again in Q3 as brands ramp up for holiday. Social, video, and CTV now absorb the vast majority of budgets, with social alone exceeding half of category spend in most quarters.
For Q4 2025, the report expects social to capture roughly 46 to 49 percent of spend, video to sit around 24 to 26 percent, and CTV to account for about 17 to 19 percent of total budgets, with display near 9 to 10 percent, primarily as an efficient support channel rather than the star of the plan.
Social Scale, CTV Impact, and Shifting Regions
Over the past year, marketplaces have doubled down on performance driven formats. Social delivers both the largest share of spend and the majority of impressions, especially during promotion heavy weeks driven by flash sales, coupons, and limited time offers. CTV continues to expand from about 11.5 percent of spend last year to roughly 15 percent by Q3 2025, with a higher share during peak holiday weeks as brands buy premium reach on large screens.
| Channel / Q | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 |
| Display | 18.7% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 12.2% |
| Video | 20.2% | 24.1% | 15% | 21.7% | 20.4% |
| Social | 49.5% | 47.9% | 66.8% | 54.7% | 52.4% |
| CTV | 11.5% | 16.6% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 14.9% |
Geographically, spend is still anchored in New York and Los Angeles, which together represent about 14 percent of national investment, but growth is tilting toward Southern and Western metros. Dallas, Washington D.C., Phoenix, Atlanta, and Tampa are gaining momentum, while some older coastal markets soften slightly.
Amazon, Temu, Target, And Walmart Set the Tone
Four advertisers dominate marketplace advertising: Amazon, Temu, Target, and Walmart. Amazon maintains the highest and most stable investment with a balanced multi-channel mix. Temu’s aggressive U.S. push peaks in late 2024 with heavy social spend before normalizing in 2025. Target and Walmart trail on volume but focus on steady, diversified budgets across social, video, display, and CTV to protect share without extreme quarterly swings.
How Marketplace Marketers Should Act on This Data
The report recommends locking in key social and video inventory from early November, then layering CTV for incremental reach in priority DMAs. A balanced mix centers on social in the mid-40s to high-40s, video in the mid-20s, CTV just under 20 percent, and the remainder in display for retargeting and coverage. Weekly creative refreshes, close CPM and CTR monitoring, and rapid budget shifts toward outperforming channels are critical as shipping cutoffs approach.
This article only scratches the surface of the data behind marketplace performance. Get the complete picture in the Online Marketplace Digital Advertising Trends report.
